For completeness’ sake, I’ll add that my optimistic prediction might not have been optimistic enough:
Apparently, the devkit shipment led to an unexpected spike in orders.
It is not implausible that a similar thing happened during the shipping-Q3-daily-video campaign and after the CCC talk.
So, possibly orders are now closer to 10k than to 6k. Or at least somewhere between that.
During the CCC talk, Nicole hinted that they manufacture in 10k quantities, which either means 10k or a few more, depending on how many they want to put on stock.