Challenge: Predict Librem 5 shipping

OMG ! you killed me with this one ! :rofl:


A famous investor once predicted that the stock market would go up and down. :stuck_out_tongue:

I’m trying to help, but whatever. Enjoy your misery.

Indeed, JP Morgan: “It will fluctuate”

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Yeah… stop getting my hopes up!

More seriously though, I still wish that Purism would release some accurate “we shipped” data, or make some predictions.
Dealing with future uncertainty is not beyond the wit of man.

Oh man, sorry you took it that way, but it was clearly a joke relative to the topic

I didn’t catch the reference (if there was one), the big question is : did he made a good prediction ? :upside_down_face:

Prism has already committed to ONLY estimating a certain distance out due to availability uncertainty in the supply chain. I think it is reasonable for Purism to stick to this.

To expand on what Gavaudan was saying; my personal observation is that much of the frustration from past estimates stem from purism setting and then not meeting expectations and/or not resetting expectations promptly. (The details and examples of this have been discussed ad nauseam in other threads and if further discussion is desired, that is best suited for other threads; not to derail this thread)

I would like to see a bit more transparency from purism on the shipping progress this far, but that is a personal preference; partially stemming from how often I have seen purism tout it’s transparency. I’m not by any means saying what they should/shouldn’t do on that front just expressing my preference.

I also think estimates/predictions should have upper and lower bounds with confidence bands and beyond 6 months out should probably fade to grey as that is so much uncertainty as to be pure guesswork. A single line estimate often gets taken as having near certain probability/high confidence and in this case I don’t believe that is reasonable.


I am not asking Purism to make estimates. They, as you mentioned in your post, have made their statements on shipping predictions. I am just curious how a more skilled person with methods of statistics / stochastics / data science / you name it, would fit a function in here to have a simple data perspective.

Agree. That would be good to see in a plot as well.

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An attempt at humor about the futility of trying to predict something when it could go either way (i.e. agreeing with your example about the weather). :slightly_smiling_face:

JP Morgan was always right.

I like how the first two graphs together kinda give the min-max of delivery estimates… the max is probably nearing the earth population by fall, so good times for linux phones ahead :slight_smile:


Hi, fun challenge. People, treat it as just that, a fun challenge. We all know that “predictions are very hard, especially when they concern the future!
With liberally cleaned data to pretend monotonous increasing shipping numbers, and a polynomial trend line, I arrive at:

UPDATE: Added a shipping vs Order graph, a diagonal line would mean order/shipping frequency parity.


Probs to you @spaetz. Just great! That’s what I am talking about.
And the idea of putting a second y-axis (order date) to it: Awesome.

Assuming, that from now (last data point) on we have a linear trend. How would it look like?
It seems that we would then hit 2.500 delivered devices by the end of May. As promised. Linear regression would be feasible therefore.
Can you add it?

Not really linear regression, but continueing the trend line would look like that (and extending it any further would finally enter the realm of phantasy :-)):


I would expect some modal changes when the FCC/CE certifications are complete and Byzantium is out.

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Wouldn’t the production rate saturate at a maximum point and from there is constant as long as the circumstances stay the same?

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That is what meant here.

Being willing to enter the realm, when would we reach the 3975 phones ordered until 2018-10-05 (end of this thread)? What does your crystal ball speak about this? :mage:

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i believe that somebody once told me that a sorcerer is a wizard without a hat ? which hat are we talking about here ? :crazy_face:

Don’t forget the 3rd wave corona lock down. :sweat_smile: When the new virus arrives china we could have another delay (but don’t hope so).