Just out of morbid curiosity I emailed Purism support and here is the reply I got (I ordered Jan. 2019):
Hello,
Depending on part availability to be confirmed we expect to reach your
place in the pre-order queue by late Q3 2022/early Q4 2022, otherwise
this might slip to mid Q2 2023 at the latest.
For more information you can check out the post linked below (we have
since resumed shipping the Librem 5 evergreen batch but manufacturing is
still going slowly due to limited part availability)
Our apologies for the long wait, thank you for your support and your
patience.
Does the estimate of mid q2 2023 have anything to do with the prediction of NXP saying that’s when they hope to have a grip on the current chip shortage? Is there any indication purism has sent out phones beyond ones from the batch of 1160 phones they’ve a picture of all the way back in Januari?
I think Q2/23 is a healthy 1/2 year safety margin. As we’ve seen, it’s prudent to add a little leeway in the vague not-set-in-stone predictions for the next pandemic due to a nuclear asteroid that causes a global flood and zombies (or that NXP thing). Hope for that Q4, but don’t be surprised if that turns into Q1 or Q2. That would still be about 1+ year faster than what it’s been lately.
I now estimate the shipping of the Librem 5 phone I purchased in Oct 2018 as NEVER. Steve Cortez announced on Steve Bannon’s Warroom today the results of a nation-wide survey of ~6,000 small businesses. 1/3 did not pay their rent in June. 50% expect to close up shop in the next 6 months. Follow this through to commercial real estate and the banks that loan to them. It’s over. The line was too long to make it to then end before the can that has been kicked since before 2008 hit the end of the road. At least I can find peace in the certainty this coming reality brings with it re: the Librem 5.
Unless you have concrete data about Purism, 50% is the probability of a coin flip. So what you’re saying is that according to a coin flip, you have certainty about Librem 5. I guess I’ve seen worse sources of information, but this is pretty bad
The claim is shonkier than a coin flip because it also depends on whether “close up shop in the next 6 months” occurs before or after shipping of an order placed Oct 2018 (when we can already see phones shipping for orders placed August 2018) i.e. even if “close up shop in the next 6 months” were to occur.
Also any survey based on (informed) expectations about the future carries with it inherent uncertainty.
I’m by no means a lefty and appreciate what Steve Bannon is doing but you also have to realize that sometimes people make these doom and gloom predictions for eyeballs. The globalists do not want to plunge the world into a 1930’s style depression because they will create a massive cohort of people with nothing to loose, and that is very very dangerous to their agenda. I think they will continue to print worthless fiat like there is no tomorrow to keep interest rates down, that’s what I think. They want to continue their efforts to plunge the world into soft totalitarianism.
Check the post that they are “replying” to – it indicates they ordered on 2018-04-12.
This is a bit exciting… I still have not received a tracking email, but if they are processing 2018-04, then 2018-05 should be soon… I feel I cannot wait.
updated chart, you’ll see a bit of zigzag in the end, some May 2018 orders have been shipped and received already, but it seems the strict and nice relationship between order date and ship date is not that strict anymore…
