This calculation can be reduced to a pretty simple formula:
orders_ahead_of_you / average_weekly_shipping_throughput = number_of_weeks_until_yours_ships
We know orders_ahead_of_you. For reasons we explained in the Shipping post, and that I elaborated on here, we do not and can not yet know average_weekly_shipping_throughput.
Can we make wild and inaccurate guesses? Sure, but we are guaranteed to be wrong, which guarantees basically everyone will be disappointed, either because we erred on the side of being very conservative, therefore people think they will get their phone later than they actually will, or we erred on the side of being too optimistic, which then means people think their phone will arrive sooner than it actually will.
Given some of the criticisms you bring up around delays, we are incredibly sensitive right now about avoiding giving inaccurate shipping information to people, but once we know average_weekly_shipping_throughput (which we think will take 4-6 weeks) then we can complete the above equation and give people reasonably accurate estimates, if they haven’t already received their phone in the mean time.