It looks like Samsung and TSMC are willing to do the investment necessary to keep Moore’s Law going at least down to 3 nm. From there it seems like the laws of physics are going to make it much harder to keep making smaller node sizes, but 3nm chips are going to have incredible processing power in comparison to 28 nm planar chips, which is why I find it shocking that NXP is willing to guarantee production until 2033.
My guess is that NXP figures that it will cost very little to keep producing at these older nodes, because the foundries have these old fabs just sitting around and the investment has already been sunk, so they might as well keep running them. Companies are willing to pay a lot for older chips, in order go avoid the cost of redesigning their devices. Before the current chip shortages started, the i.MX 6Quad cost $54, whereas the i.MX 8M Quad cost $35.50, so NXP can charge a premium for its older chips.
I do wonder how many people will still want to use the Librem 5 in 2033.
PS: Right now if you search for the i.MX 8M Quad, it has gotten a lot more expensive:
- Mouser: 23 in stock, $58.91 for 1, $57.24 in lot of 10, 27 weeks lead time
- Arrow: None in stock, $41.72 in lot of 90, 26 weeks lead time
- Digi-Key: 26 in stock, $78.70 for 1, 26 weeks lead time
Purism wasn’t kidding when it said that it would have trouble getting the i.MX 8M Quad.