The grim future for LineageOS and custom Android ROMs

Hardware Librem 5
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I wrote an article that analyzes how LineageOS is used, including the number of builds and installs by device manufacturer, country, version, device release year and status (official, discontinued and unofficial), plus installs per capita. See:
https://amosbbatto.wordpress.com/2025/11/02/lineageos-statistics

I added a section at the end of the article about the threats that I see to the LineageOS project, and frankly the outlook is grim for custom Android ROMs. With the recent changes to the bootloader unlock policies at Samsung, Xiaomi, Realme and ASUS, the brands that LineageOS can be installed on will be reduced from 42.5% of the global smartphone market to just 7%.

Long ago, I predicted that the world would eventually need mobile Linux, because Google would shut down AOSP, if the AOSP derivatives like LineageOS ever became too much of a threat to Google’s profits. While Google has restricted AOSP in a number of ways over the years, I never foresaw the threat if Google pushed the rest of the phone industry to start offering longer support for their phones.

Because the Android phone makers now have to offer longer support for their phones, they are being pushed toward a business model based on the collection of users’ personal data that is used for targeted advertising and the training of AI. While the old business model based on hardware sales and planned obsolescence was horrible for the environment, the new business model is going to be horrible in terms of personal privacy.

I doubt that the restricting of custom Android ROMs to just 7% of the smartphone market will lead to large numbers of people switching to mobile Linux, but it does clearly show the problems with the industry, where people don’t really own their own hardware, because they can’t install the software that they choose on their phones.

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LineageOS does not represent all custom Android ROMs.

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All the custom ROMs have the same problem that you can’t install them unless you can unlock the bootloader. Regardless of whether you are installing postmarketOS or LineageOS, you don’t really own the hardware if you can’t unlock the bootloader.

However, it is worth pointing out that a large number of the AOSP derivatives are based on LineageOS (I list some of them in the article). LineageOS is like Debian that it has a lot of influence, because it has so many children which are based on it.

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I agree with your counterpoints, except that I would not consider unlocking the bootloader sufficient for claiming hardware ownership.

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Right, but what @amosbatto wrote was only that “you don’t really own the hardware if you can’t unlock the bootloader”, that’s not saying it’s sufficient.

What would be sufficient for claiming hardware ownership?

How about this: “You have ownership of some hardware if you control it, and you are able to verify that nobody else is controlling it behind your back”? That is, the device cannot contain things that can be manipulated or used by others without the owner being aware of it or being able to stop it.

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11 posts were split to a new topic: Obstacles to libre mobile

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Controlling the entire fabrication and assembly process of all components used in the product.

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As a non-trivial point of correction…

You wrote in your study:

Android was created by Google as a means to collect users’ personal information for Google’s targeted advertising…

Android was not created by Google; it was bought by Google from its creators. (And Google hired those same creators.)

Of course, we know that Google then went on to “enhance” the data collection.

I think you maybe had in mind “developed,” and not “created,” though.

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Good point. I changed it from “created” to “developed” in the article.

I looked up the history of Android, and everything that I have found is very vague about the state of the operating system when it was developed by an independent company between Oct 2003 and July 2005 before Google bought the company for $50 million. Android started as an OS for digital cameras and then switched to mobile phones in 2004. Before Google bought the OS, it had no chance of getting used in a commercial product, and it didn’t make its first beta release of the code until Nov. 5, 2007, when Google announced the formation of the Open Handset Alliance. Google didn’t get serious about Android until Apple released the iPhone in June 2007, and it took over a year after that for the first Android phone, the HTC Dream, to be released in October 2008.

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