Estimate your Librem 5 shipping

That’s depressing. Christmas 2021 then maybe. I’ll be buying another cheap android to use in the meantime.
I don’t understand this

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Last entry is 303!
Let’s assume there are 600 out there in the meanwhile. Divided by 30 (when shipping started) = 20 per day.
Not even close to 100!
Ramping up to your figure is 5 times more. That is why I laughed!

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Actually, no. I don’t see any reason whatsoever for making merry in these numbers.

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Which numbers?

The list above (first post)?
Or the 100 per day number?

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Have a guess…

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Don’t despair, things will get better soon.

The following are speculations. I hope I am not too far from the truth.

Anyone who is qualified to receive an Evergreen will be offered one only after the Librem 5 gets the FCC (CE) certification. The people who received an “Evergreen” so far, were those who qualified for a development batch (Aspen-Dogwood) but chose to wait for an Evergreen. Still they were warned that “Evergreen” doesn’t have yet the certifications, and if they still wanted one now, they received a Librem 5 developer phone. That kind of prototypes can be put legally on the market without certification. Remember, the true Evergreen will be a mass production batch, and will only happen if it will have all the required certifications. They knew this from the beginning but chose to confuse people.

So, when will they succeed (FCC) certifying Evergreen - a crucial step? It seems they hoped to finish it by now, in late December, but didn’t happened yet. Also, the $2000 Librem 5 USA was supposed to start shipping at the end of the year. But who would ship a $2000 non-certified phone, a $2000 developer phone? So, I expect it to be delayed to January. Since Kyle think they can predict shipping estimates in January, then they might expect to get FCC certification by then.

After the FCC certification is obtain, then the true Evergreen receives the green light. Start of production will happen and lots of things need to be manufactured: the phone, and everything in the box: headphones, cables, power supply, package box, papers, etc… Then all those must be shipped from China and other places to Purism facility in USA where they will check and ship them to Librem 5 buyers… So 3-4 weeks after certification?

After that Evergreen shipping should be quite consistent in numbers, assuming there is no money shortage to pay for manufacturing the phones.

I think Purism people should close the year and take and enjoy the holidays. Nothing more can be done this year.

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This has already been discussed several times in different topics.
It doesn’t make sense this calculation.
Purism has made it clear that they have not launched the production of their entire backlog at once. The aim is to go gradually to ensure that there is not a quality or design problem that has missed out on testing.
Even though they can ship 100 L5s a day, if they only ordered 50 for the first month, they will not ship more than 50.
And in the second month, it might be 500, then 1,000 and so on. We don’t know.
What is certain is that this first month cannot be representative of their maximum rhythm.

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Oh, the joys of misplaced linear extrapolation…

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Where exactly do you see an extrapolation?
It is a backwards calculated average. Nothing more, nothing less.

Oh I wish I could hide all these naggy shipping speculation topics, they make it harder to see real information. :unamused:

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For real information, read https://puri.sm/news/

Official shipping estimations are announced for January 2021.

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Its unfortunate purism can’t make a post like this. They’d rather hide behind obfuscation.

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This is really the best summary of what I think is really going on at the moment. Which is fine. Some of us knew this was happening, but yeah purism likes to keep things confusing and in the dark. We have come to expect this. Once they get the FCC certification, we will be able to better guess what shipping timelines look like. Anyone thinking that over a few hundred phones have been delivered is not paying attention. We have seen like 10 people between here, reddit, and youtube get their phones. All of these people are either devs or media. If hundreds of phones were shipped out we would see many posts here, as well as to reddit, youtube, and other media platforms. But, it simply isn’t happening. It is clearly stil a “prototype” phone.

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Don’t forget there is an unknown number of deliveries that we will never know about in this forum.

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Exactly. Pretty big ones.

Demonstrably false.

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Apparently, if you say it on the internet, it MUST be true these days. :wink:

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Don’t take what I said literally, I’m generalizing here. The people who got their phones thus far are the people who backed the crowdfunding within the first few weeks and said no to the dev models. Most of those people are going to be devs or media. My point still stands that we have seen very few reviews/posts about people getting their phones.

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coincidence with the current USA election affairs ? yes we’ll know for sure after the election mess is sorted out (or NOT…)

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Reality:

Adding assumption = “unknown number”

Obviously, I did not forget.

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And your appreciation is based on what? Anyway, if you choose the biggest one I will provide arguments for it. You could also provide arguments against it…