Reality:
Adding assumption = “unknown number”
Obviously, I did not forget.
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And your appreciation is based on what? Anyway, if you choose the biggest one I will provide arguments for it. You could also provide arguments against it…
Because…? 
As Kyle repeadtedly said, they plan to give estimates in January, after collecting some data to actually be able to extrapolate such numbers.
early backers, as is evident.
Huh? It’s not true just because you state that.
Reviewers get a unit no matter whether they crowdfunded it or not.
But everybody else is just an early backer. Those who actually want to do development work, either ordered a DevKit, or were fine getting an earlier batch. You make it sound like “average people did’t order during the early days of the campaign…”
Well, but that’s not a stable way to estimate shipping numbers. I’m a developer (not for the L5) with no intention to ever create an account on this cesspool called reddit.
Aircan is probably closer. But he thinks a linear extrapolation is a sensible thing to do, so… 
Obviously, a huge number of people will never post about receiving their device. In my company there’s a saying like “for everyone reporting a certain bug, 1000 users don’t report it (and are either unhappy or remove the software…)”
Finally, this FCC thing…
First, it has already been stated that this is somewhat of a “gray area”. A computer without radios in it doesn’t need FCC (AFAIK), and if you put a (replaceable) wireless device inside that is already approved, then you also don’t need it. To be certain, they could probably send it disassembled… 
Also, for shipping to Europe, FCC is not even a thing. All that’s needed is a CE mark, which you can first get certification for, but don’t need to legally. (Most companies don’t as can be seen by all the CE markings not having a four-digit number next to them.)
Anyway, if the FCC certification would actually prevent sending out more devices to the US, they could still send them out to the EU, to the best of my knowledge.
So, the official line, that optimizing the throughput takes some time, seems plausible. Also, along the way, they can iron out some glitches (like WiFi not working initially depending on the time settings, dirt under screen protector) to improve the first experience.
I’m not saying we have the full picture. But if you need a conspiracy, make it more plausible. Certainly it could be they can’t afford to order the whole backlog at once. But at the same time, looking for hidden flaws in the final hardware, improving the first-use experience and improving the process of assembly (radios and batteries are assembled by Purism, AFAIK) and customer handling (mailing each backer to confirm address and choices) is plausible.
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To save time and effort, I’ll just agree with your point that isn’t a gross speculation:
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Christmas is a week from now (next Friday > 25th) 
I will repost this to show that we’re not in a “gray area”. The guide is very clear, read it.
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It is just unbelievable how ignorant your reading is.
Please quote, where I am talking about an EXTRAPOLATION?
I explained my point twice above.
Please: Read --> Understand --> Reflect --> Answer.
Think you just skipped the middle part of that order.
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Accepted. So, it’s the “simpler” certification then, I guess. (Still, not required for the EU).
(edit: spelling)
@aircan, sorry, I seem to have conflated your comment with the following by j8m2p6f.
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Using historical data for predictions is always an extrapolation (whether it be linear, fourier series, wavelet analysis, neural network…). As they say in mutual fund prospectuses in the US: past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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True statement but pointless w.r.t. my posts above.
Or can you quote where I did a prediction?
Wrong again.
In the guide above it says clearly that CE is “quite similar to a combination of the UL and FCC certifications”. That CE marking sections links to the European Commission website where you can find there the manufacturers responsibilities regarding CE marking:
https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/ce-marking/manufacturers_en
And I quote from there:
It is the manufacturer’s responsibility to carry out the conformity assessment, set up the technical file, issue the EU declaration of conformity, and affix the CE marking to a product. Only then can this product be traded on the EEA market.
If you are a manufacturer, you have to follow these 6 steps to affix a CE marking to your product:
- Identify the applicable directive(s) and harmonised standards
- Verify product specific requirements
- Identify whether an independent conformity assessment (by a notified body) is necessary
- Test the product and check its conformity
- Draw up and keep available the required technical documentation
- Affix the CE marking and draw up the EU Declaration of Conformity (27 KB).
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You are welcome @Caliga. I Apreciate that. I perceived your comments in other treads as objective. So I was wondering about this statement above and did not want to be quoted in a wrong way.
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But… what you quote… I read that as “all in the hands of the manufacturer”. You’re not required to submit it to some institution and wait for their blessing. That’s what I meant. You can, if you wish. In this case, a four-digit number next to the CE sign shows that you did. (Which is rare, in my observation)
No, Nicole Faerber says in the presentation that Librem 5 is (obvious) an intentional radiator, as any other smartphone (see the guide above again).
Lol I never said it was a good way of coming up with shipping numbers. I’m simply saying if they were shipping out even 20 phones a day, we would have seen much more social media presence by now.
Thats exactly what I’m saying. In the general sense. This obviously isnt 100% of everyone who ordered then.
I have read such posts by kyle. This is an indication because it likely means larger-scale
manufacturing will start at that exact point most likely. We will then see an influx of people getting phones and posting their order dates. It should be easy to guess when your phone would be shipped.
As others have pointed out. This is NOT a grey area lol. Its very clearly outlined. And to your point about it not applying to the EU; yes it absolutely affects the EU. Lets just assume sales are split 50/50 between the EU and US for the sake of argument (I know they arent). Purism would not know how many phones they would need to bulk order if the FCC denied Purism. Purism cannot move forward to bulk production before the FCC cert or they run the risk of losing tons of money. That is not a risk any company would take.
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@j8m2p6f Go outside, take a few deep breaths of fresh air, realize the shipping dates do not change whether or not you are constantly posting here and optionally use your time wisely. You could:
- Go out for a run
- Make a home workout
- Start meditating
- Read a bock
- Try to be grateful
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Thanks mom
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They technically started shipping. I wouldn’t consider it mass shipping yet. They have made clarifications regarding this in the news post.
Well I’m going to finish my steak then go out and lay in the sun with a smoke and a brew and stop my constant posting here for an hour or two. Cheers
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This is from the https://puri.sm/posts/the-librem-5-mass-production-shipping-faq/ post;
Early Backers
If you qualified for one of the previous batches but chose to defer your shipment to Evergreen, you will get your phone in late November to early December .
I hate to admit that you are spot-on on the “technicality” aspect, I am still waiting for my modem selection email and we are now in late December and am waiting and waiting and waiting … for my Evergreen phone. (I was placed in the Evergreen batch)
So being “technically right” wouldn’t be enough if I have to go with the post.
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