Kyle, please be so kind and comment on that dark prognose,
Matthias
It’s like the pot of gold on the other side of the rainbow. It does not exist.
This is pretty much what I expected. I also expect the binding contracts to end up being broken even with prepaid orders if there is a hot flareup in the pacific and we seem to be on a trajectory for a possible event.
The Chinese have announced the intent to build massive amount of nukes, don’t expect that even in the short term we will not see the effects of these kinds of events.
Certainly we all want and hope for things to go back to the way they were, but not everyone on the planet agrees.
We live in precarious times.
Terrific analysis, thank you for sharing.
@StevenR, I have read the same thing about companies pre-paying to guarantee their orders and move to the front of the queue. However, it is widely known that many companies over-ordered, because they were unsure that parts would be available in the future, so they want to have as large of a supply as possible. A number of commentators say that the supply shortage isn’t as bad as many people think due to the over-ordering. All the foundries (TSMC, Samsung, GlobalFoundries, UMC, SMIC, etc.) are producing at maximum capacity. Yes, people are buying more electronics than before during the pandemic, but the fundamental conditions haven’t changed, so the current shortage is mainly due to companies being spooked and trying to buy overly large quantities of chips because they aren’t sure that there will be a steady supply. Eventually, the market will settle down, but Taiwanese and Korean governments could implement a quota system to stop the over-ordering.
From the outside, it is hard for us to know what is the situation inside Purism. Maybe this is the result of mismanagement or lack of foresight in the company, or maybe it can be attributed to a lack of funds to buy the needed parts when it started becoming apparent that a chip shortage was coming. There are many companies that got caught in the chip shortage.
At the end of the day, I keep coming back to the fact that Purism is paying for significant software development, which no other Linux hardware company does, and Purism’s programmers are quite productive, so I don’t judge the company as harshly as others.
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LOL I have been waiting for 4 years for my phone. Seems a little depressing to see complaints about 180 day promise. Most that have ordered in 2017 still are waiting. Years before and virus or shortages were the excuse for the delay.
I have been promised a phone many times just to hear another excuse for the delay. I expect to get a phone by 2023 or not at all. I think all new orders should be required to read the forums before forking over their hard earned money. They have to keep promising delivery to keep the money coming in. No refund until shipping is ready forces me to wait for a phone that might or might not show up. Good luck you might need it.
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According to an earlier comment of yours, you ordered it only 2 1/2 years ago:
That’s still a long time, of course, but I had to wait 3 years, 2 months, and about 3 weeks for mine. I crowdfunded early…and received my phone sooner than some.
Also, friendly reminder that “promise” is inaccurate, as they have always said it’s their best estimate. I sympathize with your frustration, though.
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Seems like 4 years Still won’t have a phone even after 4 years. Beginning to think they will go bankrupt before then. It might not work on the cell network when and if I get it. VOlte still questionable. St. nic has let me down twice. Maybe we can say “guesstamate” I did not want to call it a bold faced lie.
VoLTE, at least, is getting sorted out now, so that shouldn’t be an issue.
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Maybe that was Purism’s biggest mistake. They should have just collected the money and said from the beginning “this anyway won’t give you any phone, ever, you are just financing freedom on mobile devices”.
If Purism had done that I would not have to hear every day complains of impatient people, who instead of being happy for the fact that GNU/Linux phones have been invented at last, or celebrating that what was a risky investment has finally succeeded – although with a lot of difficulties – keep crying about not having a phone yet.
Please do everyone a favor and let your greediness express itself in silence. We are thankful for your contribution to this project.
But there has to be a point when you put your foot down and say “no more”. Purism should be asking for donations at this point, not taking pre-order money from people. Purism should be giving those who ask for refunds, their refunds. Purism should be completely transparent now, after initial plans didn’t work out as expected. The risk on a Librem 5 pre-order now appears to be extremely high for those of us who have been waiting for years now. New people to this forum should be warned. Let Todd and company do the right things if they want the community to trust them going forward now. Otherwise, revenues should screech to a complete stop. Let the pieces fall where they may. Todd and company could choose to do the right things and depend on charity if necessary. But that’s really up to them. If the project fails it’ll be because people stopped believing that Purism was acting reasonably under the given conditions. How many phones were ordered up to this point? How many phones have shipped so far? What does Purism’s financial position look like now? No information about this from Purism?..fine, then no more pre-orders. I am not being greedy for myself. If the pre-orders stop, I’ll probably lose my money. But maybe the next person and many others like them won’t lose theirs.
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You might want to re-read what you wrote there and consider how it comes across to others who don’t share your exact vision.
I think it is often forgotten on this forum that people who crowdfunded or pre-ordered the Librem 5 came from several different, sometimes overlapping groups. I am certain that some people who paid in advance for a A Security and Privacy Focused Phone were not thinking about funding a new mobile ecosystem – they saw a product that they hoped could help them achieve their goals.
Some other customers backed or pre-ordered the phone because they wanted hackable phone hardware. At this point, from their perspective, the phone is ready and they don’t care about paying for app development, for example.
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I am okay with people expressing their opinions, positive and negative.
My only contention is around context. It is possible to be unrealistic on either side of that line.
The upside from the pros / cons conversation here and in other threads is that ALL OF US are learning about the dire state of the electronics industry in the west.
The most important lesson for all of us is that we are learning about the forces being applied on the supply side and the demand side and we need to start thinking about how to re-tool our political and economic policy base in the west to bridge that gap.
If I am to put a new order for Librem 5, i won’t see motivation to do so considering the 180 day lead time. Again, the 180-day lead time is a best-case estimate for availability of chips so, not sure what to expect after 180-days. I am implying the 180-day lead time window is not going to get pre-orders. 
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Really everyone has different opinions and background. If had more money I would buy a Librem 5 exactly now that the difficulties are higher and my help is most required. And I would do it for more than one reason. But I do understand that everyone comes from a different perspective.
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Thank you Eyegore,
i just use a google Free Lineageos System, with free and open Source f-droid Apps. But you made a good Point about China’s Android.
However, for Chinese it may be good enough too. Cause our Mistrust is a local issue. For myself i do not mistrust Librem USA or Purism. But some groups for inspection by a Country, you have to follow as company, too. Open Source is powerful, if you check that code or reduce something.
By the way i trust google and facebook, but not with their mainstream products… just their source code and talks about Linux and computing.
Back to lead Time: I hope puri.sm start in 180 Days since 1. June. Instead of October to reproduce Librem 5.
@ kagixa
Oh I am greedy to buy a product and expect it to be delivered within a few years. LOL because you comment must be a joke. I would ask for a refund and then I would be silent as you asked, but they stopped refunds.
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Speaking of the devil, is it really sole-source China (PRC), or Taiwan? Or is it a mixed assembly via much of Southeast Asia? Due to success, some segment of their population even has a middle class with higher labor rate. Even China has figured out to subcontract some of their manufacturing to even cheaper places than them. China and Vietnam may have the same labor relationship as the U.S. and Mexico for example.
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If I need a new phone and need it “now” then would I be buying a phone that will get delivered after 6-months? Or I would buy whatever I get at earliest?
I would be more inclined to buy a phone that says “In-Stock, Now Shipping” . Think about it.
That is happening with Taiwanese companies, but not with Chinese companies. So far Chinese companies aren’t going to cheaper countries to use their labor. Right now Samsung, LG, Canon, Intel and Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) do assembly in Vietnam.
The Chinese brands and the Chinese ODMs/EMSs have mostly stayed at home, and if they go abroad, it is to places like India and Brazil, which have huge tariffs on imported electronics and incentives to make electronics inside their borders. However, it has been reported that Xiaomi and Luxshare (a Chinese EMS that assembles Apple Airpods) are looking at setting up assembly factories in Vietnam, so they might start following the example of the Taiwanese in the future.
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“Greediness” in your case is having schedule expectations at all about something about which you should never put any expectation, even after having paid. But you should have known that years ago, not now. You will get something in the end, either a phone or your money back. What you cannot get back is exactly the time about which you are complaining, despite that was a gift you decided to make when you financed a crowdfunding campaign. “Now” is the word that you should forget – not “phone”, not “money back”, only “now”.
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