What does “Shipping Parity” actually mean?
“Shipping parity” means that Purism has gotten through all the back orders, so it can start shipping out new orders. When Purism reaches shipping parity, it should be able to send out the item within 10 business days after receiving the order (at least that is the standard time listed on the Purism web site).
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So I should get my L5 by October?
I tried to answer your question but it was flagged as off-topic because it apparently didn’t address the press nor the right or left wings. I said it was based on eschatology and specified some religions involved.
It was off-topic because it’s not related to the lead time of the Librem 5. Please don’t steer conversations into the bushes (and don’t let yourself be goaded into derailing). You did it in the other thread as well.
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Maybe if you ordered in October 2017 so you’re at the front of the line, but the Purism webstore currently says that new L5 orders will be shipped in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. I would take that October projection with a giant grain of salt, because I assume Purism is just repeating what NXP or one of the electronic suppliers told them, and adding a few more weeks to do the assembly, but I doubt that anyone knows for sure. i’m guessing that NXP is in a very long queue at the Samsung foundry, just like everybody else.
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Turn it down. Perhaps you should go and do something useful for six months.
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I work in the semiconductor industry and have been told by reliable sources that normal shipping pairity in the semiconductor industry is not expected to be achieved until around mid-2022.
In a post on these forums several months ago, I posted a way for semiconductor customers to game the system, to get more than their share of chips during a shortage. But since that time, something new has started taking place in the market that makes gaming the system next to impossible in many cases now. Semiconductor customers are now starting to pre-pay their orders and are signing binding purchase agreements, essentially putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to their own demand. For the most-part, this is new in the semiconductor industry. In past markets, a semiconductor company couldn’t make such demands and stay competitive in the long-term. But for now, those who pay in advance or who sign binding purchase agreements will get their chips first for now. So much for gaming the system. When Purism says 180 days delay, I am seeing a solid year delay before the chip’s ship to them. And that is if Purism gets in early when the integrated circuits start shipping to regular IC customers again. The only likely exception I can see is if Purism has already pre-paid for those chips that they expect to see 180 days from now.
I really hope that Purism isn’t asleep at the wheel on this issue. But then again, maybe Purism doesn’t have enough funds to pay in advance for the chips anyway. Be prepared for Purism to say six months from now that their supplier has let them down (its always someone else’s fault) and that the chips still aren’t available. If I were with Purism and if I really expected those chips to be available to me 180 days from now, I would be trying to get a binding purchase contract put in place with money to the supplier up-front if possible. Without such a contract and/or pre-payment, a customer in this market can expect to receive from between zero to five percent of their un-backed pre-order of chips in early 2022.
Just for fun here, maybe someone should bookmark this post and quote me on it at an appropriate time roughly six months from now. I would love to be proven wrong on this one. But I think it’ll be another year from now before the Librem 5 (non-USA edition) starts shipping again and that Purism will wait nearly the full six months from now and then blame their IC supplier (or have some other excuse) for another substantial shipping delay after that. If that ends up happening, then the mistake was made right now (June of 2021) at the latest, not when they write about it later as if it were unforeseeable or a result of bad luck. Bad luck will absolutely prevail six months from now if the right steps are not taken right now. Actually, the mistake was made much longer ago than that, with no production ramp planned for 2019 (pre-pandemic) when Purism made their celebratory shipping announcements for the Librem 5.
It appears to me in retrospect, that Purism is taking several significant losses, simply through missing critical opportunities that take place in most new product release cycles. It’s kind of like someone who has such poor credit that they can’t get their own checking account. So they use “checks-Cashed” stores and payday loans to get by. When you add-up what such an individual pays just to cash checks and to barrow money, all opportunities to conserve other money fall by the way-side. Penalties in almost every aspect financial life, keep the person perpetually broke. The new product ramp-up in the market is supposed to be the big payday for the manufacturer of a new product. Purism is losing momentum at every step with the Librem 5 because they appear to not know how to execute this critical new product manufacturing ramp-up process on a larger scale. I imagine that the queue for the Librem 5 is probably on several orders of magnitude, larger than anything that Purism has ever experienced previously. Their own success could actually take them down if production does not ramp up quickly enough. If the Librem 5 fails, most people will not even remember down the road, what the excuse was. At that point, it won’t really matter to most people.
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Kyle, please be so kind and comment on that dark prognose,
Matthias
It’s like the pot of gold on the other side of the rainbow. It does not exist.
This is pretty much what I expected. I also expect the binding contracts to end up being broken even with prepaid orders if there is a hot flareup in the pacific and we seem to be on a trajectory for a possible event.
The Chinese have announced the intent to build massive amount of nukes, don’t expect that even in the short term we will not see the effects of these kinds of events.
Certainly we all want and hope for things to go back to the way they were, but not everyone on the planet agrees.
We live in precarious times.
Terrific analysis, thank you for sharing.
@StevenR, I have read the same thing about companies pre-paying to guarantee their orders and move to the front of the queue. However, it is widely known that many companies over-ordered, because they were unsure that parts would be available in the future, so they want to have as large of a supply as possible. A number of commentators say that the supply shortage isn’t as bad as many people think due to the over-ordering. All the foundries (TSMC, Samsung, GlobalFoundries, UMC, SMIC, etc.) are producing at maximum capacity. Yes, people are buying more electronics than before during the pandemic, but the fundamental conditions haven’t changed, so the current shortage is mainly due to companies being spooked and trying to buy overly large quantities of chips because they aren’t sure that there will be a steady supply. Eventually, the market will settle down, but Taiwanese and Korean governments could implement a quota system to stop the over-ordering.
From the outside, it is hard for us to know what is the situation inside Purism. Maybe this is the result of mismanagement or lack of foresight in the company, or maybe it can be attributed to a lack of funds to buy the needed parts when it started becoming apparent that a chip shortage was coming. There are many companies that got caught in the chip shortage.
At the end of the day, I keep coming back to the fact that Purism is paying for significant software development, which no other Linux hardware company does, and Purism’s programmers are quite productive, so I don’t judge the company as harshly as others.
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LOL I have been waiting for 4 years for my phone. Seems a little depressing to see complaints about 180 day promise. Most that have ordered in 2017 still are waiting. Years before and virus or shortages were the excuse for the delay.
I have been promised a phone many times just to hear another excuse for the delay. I expect to get a phone by 2023 or not at all. I think all new orders should be required to read the forums before forking over their hard earned money. They have to keep promising delivery to keep the money coming in. No refund until shipping is ready forces me to wait for a phone that might or might not show up. Good luck you might need it.
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According to an earlier comment of yours, you ordered it only 2 1/2 years ago:
That’s still a long time, of course, but I had to wait 3 years, 2 months, and about 3 weeks for mine. I crowdfunded early…and received my phone sooner than some.
Also, friendly reminder that “promise” is inaccurate, as they have always said it’s their best estimate. I sympathize with your frustration, though.
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Seems like 4 years Still won’t have a phone even after 4 years. Beginning to think they will go bankrupt before then. It might not work on the cell network when and if I get it. VOlte still questionable. St. nic has let me down twice. Maybe we can say “guesstamate” I did not want to call it a bold faced lie.
VoLTE, at least, is getting sorted out now, so that shouldn’t be an issue.
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Maybe that was Purism’s biggest mistake. They should have just collected the money and said from the beginning “this anyway won’t give you any phone, ever, you are just financing freedom on mobile devices”.
If Purism had done that I would not have to hear every day complains of impatient people, who instead of being happy for the fact that GNU/Linux phones have been invented at last, or celebrating that what was a risky investment has finally succeeded – although with a lot of difficulties – keep crying about not having a phone yet.
Please do everyone a favor and let your greediness express itself in silence. We are thankful for your contribution to this project.
But there has to be a point when you put your foot down and say “no more”. Purism should be asking for donations at this point, not taking pre-order money from people. Purism should be giving those who ask for refunds, their refunds. Purism should be completely transparent now, after initial plans didn’t work out as expected. The risk on a Librem 5 pre-order now appears to be extremely high for those of us who have been waiting for years now. New people to this forum should be warned. Let Todd and company do the right things if they want the community to trust them going forward now. Otherwise, revenues should screech to a complete stop. Let the pieces fall where they may. Todd and company could choose to do the right things and depend on charity if necessary. But that’s really up to them. If the project fails it’ll be because people stopped believing that Purism was acting reasonably under the given conditions. How many phones were ordered up to this point? How many phones have shipped so far? What does Purism’s financial position look like now? No information about this from Purism?..fine, then no more pre-orders. I am not being greedy for myself. If the pre-orders stop, I’ll probably lose my money. But maybe the next person and many others like them won’t lose theirs.
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