Estimate your Librem 5 shipping

Hardware Librem 5
1

I tried to gather some data to make raw estimates. It ends in October 2018 where Purism removed the sales numbers from their new shop.

I calculated the number of Librem 5 (cumulative) sold by order date from the wayback machine.

EDITED: I (@spaetz) will try to keep the graphical overview somewhat up to date (last update: Aug 31) and sync it with the table below, keep in mind that I do some liberal and manual data sanitizing to e.g. interpolate missing data by averages and delete some outliers.

shipping
shipping930Ă—538 57.5 KB

(you’ll see a bit of zig-zag in the end, implying that the strict monotonic relationship between order date and shipping date has somewhat been infringed recently.

I tried to make a graph of the waiting time (unfortunately, I cannot upload the LibreOffice Calc document that I used):

waiting_days_from_order_to_shipment
waiting_days_from_order_to_shipment856Ă—539 33.5 KB

Date Phones Ship dates (not arrival date!)
2017-08-24 5 2020-11-24, 2021-01-11
2017-08-25 73
2017-08-26 122 2020-11-19
2017-08-28 158 2020-12-02
2017-08-29 173 2020-12-17
2017-08-31 245 2020-12-02, 2021-01-04
2017-09-02 259 2021-01-13
2017-09-03 268
2017-09-04 285
2017-09-05 290
2017-09-06 297
2017-09-07 303 2020-11-17, 2019-12-27 (Chestnut), 2020-11-17
2017-09-09 347
2017-09-12 407 2020-12-21
2017-09-13 420 2021-01-22, 2021-01-25
2017-09-14 480 2021-01-25
2017-09-16 555 2020-12-11, 2021-02-22
2017-09-17 618 2020-11-18, 2021-02-18, 2021-02-10, 2021-03-01
2017-09-18 674
2017-09-19 2021-02-23, 2021-02-25
2017-09-20 759 2021-02-19, 2021-02-23
2017-09-21 845
2017-09-22 932
2017-09-23 945 2021-03-05
2017-09-24 964 2021-03-05
2017-09-25 1025
2017-09-26 1075
2017-09-27 2021-03-19, 2021-03-19, 2021-03-19, 2021-03-24
2017-09-28 1172 2021-03-19, 2021-03-24
2017-09-29 2021-04-16, 2021-03-24
2017-09-30 1266 2021-03-19
2017-10-01 2021-04-30
2017-10-02 1369
2017-10-03 2021-09-17, 2021-09-17
2017-10-04 1479
2017-10-05 1506
2017-10-06 1630 2021-09-30,2021-09-29,2021-09-30,2021-09-30
2017-10-07 1745 2021-09-28,2021-09-29, 2021-10-01, 2021-10-06, 2021-10-06, 2021-10-06
2017-10-08 1832 2021-10-01, 2021-10-04
2017-10-09 1926 2021-09-29, 2021-10-12,2021-10-27
2017-10-10 2058 2021-10-20
2017-10-11 2193 2021-10-25
2017-10-12 2021-10-26
2017-10-13 2021-10-25
2017-10-14 2021-10-21
2017-10-15 2346
2017-10-16 2021-11-26
2017-10-17 2416 2021-11-16, 2021-11-16
2017-10-18 2467 2021-11-16, 2021-11-16, 2021-11-16
2017-10-19 2498 2021-03-14
2017-10-20 2580 2021-11-05, 2021-11-05, 2021-11-12, 2021-11-16, 2022-03-22
2017-10-21 2022-01-31, 2022-03-04, 2022-03-08
2017-10-22 2022-01-27, 2022-03-01, 2022-03-31
2017-10-23 2863 2022-02-25, 2022-03-25, 2022-03-24
2017-10-24 2979
2017-10-25 2022-03-01, 2022-03-22
2017-10-27 3006
2017-10-28 3012
2017-11-01 3016
2017-11-03 3019
2017-11-08 3035
2017-11-12 3050
2017-11-15 2022-03-22
2017-11-16 3060
2017-11-18 3063
2017-11-20 3068
2017-11-21 3077
2017-11-25 3087
2017-12-11 3119
2017-12-17 2022-03-10
2017-12-21 3133
2017-12-22 3134
2017-12-23 3135
2017-12-26 3140
2017-12-31 3148
2018-01-11 2022-03-14
2018-01-17 2022-03-31
2018-01-23 3211
2018-02-05 3234
2018-03-01 2022-05-19
2018-03-03 3278
2018-03-08 3288
2018-03-09 3289
2018-03-11 3290
2018-03-14 2022-06-28
2018-03-18 3299
2018-03-20 3302
2018-03-24 3305
2018-03-25 3307
2018-04-01 3319
2018-04-07 2022-06-15
2018-04-08 3336
2018-04-12 2022-07-05
2018-04-15 3353
2018-04-17 3357
2018-04-21 3364
2018-04-26 3374 2022-07-05
2018-04-30 3384
2018-05-01 3384
2018-05-02 3387
2018-05-04 3390
2018-05-09 3394
2018-05-13 3408
2018-05-14 3408
2018-05-18 2022-06-28 received
2018-05-20 3427
2018-05-25 3437
2018-05-27 3441
2018-05-29 3451
2018-06-07 3480
2018-06-14 3506
2018-06-19 3521
2018-06-23 3529
2018-07-02 2022-07-02
2018-07-09 3581
2018-07-22 3628
2018-07-30 2022-05-17
2018-08-01 3653
2018-08-05 3671
2018-08-07 2022-07-25
2018-08-08 3677
2018-08-09 2022-07-21
2018-08-14 3708
2018-08-15 3715 2022-08-26
2018-08-16 3719
2018-08-31 3779
2018-09-04 3795
2018-09-05 3799
2018-09-08 3820
2018-09-11 2022-09-06
2018-09-12 3838
2018-09-24 3929
2018-09-25 3931
2018-09-29 3952
2018-09-30 3957
2018-10-01 3959
2018-10-02 3959
2018-10-03 3967
2018-10-04 3970
2018-10-05 3975
2018-10-30 XXXX 2022-09-27
2018-11-04 XXXX 2022-09-30
2018-11-08 XXXX 2022-09-30
2018-11-09 XXXX 2022-09-29
2018-11-18 XXXX 2022-10-12
2018-11-24 XXXX 2022-10-11
2018-12-09 XXXX 2022-10-19
2018-12-17 XXXX 2022-10-24
2018-12-21 XXXX 2022-10-26
2018-12-26 XXXX 2022-10-26, 2022-10-31
2018-12-28 XXXX 2022-11-03
2018-12-31 XXXX 2022-11-04
2019-01-01 XXXX 2022-11-08
2019-01-04 XXXX 2022-11-15
2019-01-06 XXXX 2022-11-17
2019-01-09 XXXX 2022-11-17
2019-01-22 XXXX 2022-11-22, 2022-11-30
2019-01-29 XXXX 2022-12-12
2019-01-30 XXXX 2023-01-24
2019-01-31 XXXX 2023-01-24
2019-02-06 XXXX 2023-02-08
2019-03-19 XXXX 2023-02-18
2019-03-28 XXXX 2023-02-20
2019-04-29 XXXX 2023-02-22
2019-05-15 XXXX 2023-03-21
2019-05-04 XXXX 2023-06-06
2019-06-09 XXXX 2023-02-24
2019-06-18 XXXX 2023-03-08
2019-07-06 XXXX 2020-11-12 (this is an exceptional out of order delivery)
2019-07-08 XXXX 2023-03-16
2019-07-10 XXXX 2023-03-15
2019-07-30 XXXX 2023-03-27
2019-07-31 XXXX 2023-04-06, 2023-04-26
2019-08-02 XXXX 2023-05-16
2019-08-04 XXXX 2023-04-20
2019-08-20 XXXX 2023-04-19
2019-09-06 XXXX 2023-04-12
2019-09-08 XXXX 2023-04-20
2019-09-15 XXXX 2023-04-20
2019-09-24 XXXX 2023-05-17
2019-09-28 XXXX 2023-04-24
2019-10-25 XXXX 2023-04-27
2019-10-31 XXXX 2023-04-24
2019-11-16 XXXX 2023-06-09
2019-12-11 XXXX 2023-06-06
2019-12-17 XXXX 2023-05-23
2019-12-31 XXXX 2023-05-26, 2023-06-14
2020-02-04 XXXX 2023-06-13
2020-06-09 XXXX 2023-06-15
2020-06-17 XXXX 2023-06-08
2020-09-02 XXXX 2023-06-02
2020-09-25 XXXX 2023-06-03
2020-10-04 XXXX 2023-06-08
2020-10-20 XXXX 2023-08-17
2020-10-27 XXXX 2023-06-07
2020-11-04 XXXX 2023-06-01
2020-12-18 XXXX 2023-06-21
2021-02-09 XXXX 2023-08-23
2021-02-13 XXXX 2023-06-22
2021-03-XX XXXX 2023-08-25
2021-03-14 XXXX 2023-08-24
2021-04-29 XXXX 2023-08-29
2021-08-06 XXXX 2023-08-23
2021-09-12 XXXX 2023-08-24
2021-10-31 XXXX 2023-09-01
51 Likes
2

Those are cumulative phone amounts, right?

5 Likes
3

Yes, they are :slight_smile:

2 Likes
4

Note these two threads for received info gathering.

Edit: removed, what I thought was missing - mistook shipping for receiving date. Iincluding link or forum ID column would help to pinpoint doubles.

2 Likes
5

Great initiative. Very appreciate that. I hope you can keep this up to date somehow.
So this thread will become part of my browser favorites. :wink:

Just waiting for some Purism associate to explain that this can only be a raw estimate since

  • shipping capacities will increase over time (linear / exponential ?)
  • L5 USA effect (queue jumpers)
  • already delivered devices prior batches

Think we are all aware of that and again, thanks for this initiative. This sheds some light in the dark.

Can you also share these estimates?

2 Likes
6

Great job!
Do you need help to manually add more data?

I had already tried to find the figures for the end of 2018 to estimate my rank:

2018-10-20 3993
2018-11-11 4102

http://web.archive.org/web/20181111010043/https://shop.puri.sm/shop/librem-5/

1 Like
7

Can you also share these estimates?

I don’t have any estimates, that’s up to you. I only gathered raw data :slight_smile:

3 Likes
8

I don’t think so. I added now data until start of October 2018. In this time frame they changed their shop URL. The new page doesn’t have any sales numbers anymore.

But we are still so far away from shipments for 2018-10-XX orders…

2 Likes
9

Ok, I have compute the total for November 11th from the campaign page linked in my previous post.
It’s the last snapshot with sales number.

10

Also, don’t forget that some backers qualified for one of the earlier batches, but chose to delay to a later batch. Of the ones who chose to delay, some will have answered Purism before others answered, when presented with the choice. So that may look like apparent contradictions in the order of shipping. (At least, that’s my guess.)

1 Like
11

That is clear. The lower 100s (will) look messy because of the different batches. If I find any Chestnut or Dogwood shipment dates, I’ll enter them into the table.

3 Likes
12

If you’re really industrious, you can also check some of the threads of people on Reddit who posted about getting their L5. And Gardiner Bryant, etc.
:slightly_smiling_face:

1 Like
13

It looks like I ordered on September 7, 2017 but I got a Chestnut. I believe I received it in the first week of 2020, I don’t remember for sure. The shipping email says it was ready to ship December 27, 2019 and would ship that day or the next.

I don’t know how you want to include previous batches so I will just leave this here.

2 Likes
14

We ordered on the same day. If it helps, I received this email from Purism on 12/17/19 regarding my Chestnut (which I then delayed to Evergreen):

“Good news! Your Librem 5 smartphone you ordered 9/7/2017 is being
prepared for shipment to you in the next two weeks!”

So you probably received it in early 2020.

1 Like
15

Yes you are right, I meant 2020. The years are all blurring together…
I got the “ready to ship” email December 27, 2019.

16

I ordered my Librem 5 in August of 2019

17

Anyone know if our Purism order number for our phone, should help us Identify were we should be on this list?

Order Date: October 13, 2017
Order Status: Awaiting Shipment

Choose your preferred Librem 5 shipping batch: September 18th, 2019

Evergreen is your estimated shipping batch: November 13th, 2019

Development and Shipping Update: September 10th, 2020

1 Like
18

To answer your question, Purism order numbers are intentionally randomized so it’s harder for someone to impersonate you by guessing your order number.

11 Likes
19

In that case, can you share the number or percentage of orders that are fulfilled in about 5 weeks since the start of shipping?

2 Likes
20

As we’ve said a few times before we aren’t planning on publishing shipping quantities. We do hope to actually provide everyone who hasn’t yet received their Librem 5 a shipping estimate some time in January when we have all of the information (of which average and peak shipping throughput is a factor but not the only factor) we’ll need to actually make those estimates.

Anything else (including information you’d attempt to extrapolate in this thread) would result in very inaccurate estimates since if we don’t have all the information we need yet to make accurate estimates, no one else will either.

10 Likes